Forecasting disaggregated inflation rate by different household groups: The Greek case

Executive summary

This project develops a novel framework for measuring and forecasting inflation at the household level in Greece, addressing a key limitation of conventional inflation analysis based on aggregate Consumer Price Index measures. Because households differ substantially in their consumption patterns, income levels, and wealth composition, they are exposed to different inflation rates and economic consequences. Aggregate inflation measures therefore provide only a partial picture for policy design and household welfare assessment.

The project constructs disaggregated inflation indices for different household categories using expenditure weights derived from Hellenic Statistical Authority surveys. It identifies the main macroeconomic, financial, energy, and uncertainty-related drivers of inflation for each household group and develops advanced econometric and forecasting models that generate accurate multi-step-ahead projections.

By combining granular inflation measurement, advanced forecasting techniques, and scenario analysis, the project provides an evidence-based framework for more targeted and effective economic policy. Its results support policymakers in identifying vulnerable household groups, anticipating adverse inflation scenarios, and addressing income and wealth inequalities arising from heterogeneous inflation exposure.